What will heating cost this winter?
Gas, heat pump, oil, propane, electric, pellets and firewood — compared with real energy math for your home size and climate. Updated August 2026.
Estimated heating load: 81 million BTU/season — a rough figure; insulation and thermostat habits move it a lot.
Season cost by fuel (edit any price — it's your local number that matters)
≈ 7,913 kWhs · season-average COP ≈ 3.0 for a modern cold-climate air-source unit (2.0–4.0 depending on climate)
≈ 900 therms · 90% AFUE furnace (standard 80%, condensing up to 97%)
≈ 6.1 tons · 80% efficient pellet stove (75–85% typical)
≈ 5.3 cords · 70% efficient modern EPA wood stove (open fireplaces can be 10% or worse)
≈ 688 gallons · 85% AFUE oil furnace/boiler (older units 80%, new 87%+)
≈ 984 gallons · 90% AFUE propane furnace (condensing up to 97%)
≈ 23,740 kWhs · baseboards, electric furnace or space heaters — 100% efficient at the unit, but every BTU is made from scratch
Estimates: national-average prices (sources on each fuel page) and typical system efficiencies. Your utility bill has your real per-unit price — plug it in above for a number you can act on.
The 7 ways to heat a home
Ranked by cost per million BTU of delivered heat at national-average prices.
Moves heat instead of making it, so one kWh delivers ~3 kWh of warmth. In most states it beats resistance heating 3-to-1 and competes with gas.
The cheapest widespread heating fuel in most of the US — if the pipe already reaches your street. Roughly half of American homes heat with it.
Compressed sawdust with surprisingly competitive economics: a ton holds ~16.5 million BTU and a modern pellet stove burns it at ~80% efficiency.
The oldest fuel is still one of the cheapest per BTU — if you have a modern stove and a good local supplier. An open fireplace, though, sends most of the heat up the chimney.
The Northeast's fuel: high energy density delivered by truck to a tank. Costs track crude oil, so budget for swings season to season.
Rural gas-in-a-tank: burns clean in high-efficiency furnaces but carries fewer BTU per gallon than oil — and usually costs more per BTU than both gas and oil.
Simple and cheap to install, expensive to run: at average rates it's usually the priciest way to heat a whole home. Fine for single rooms and mild climates.
Questions, answered
What's the cheapest way to heat a house?+
Per million BTU of delivered heat at national-average prices, natural gas and heat pumps are usually cheapest, followed by firewood and pellets, then heating oil and propane, with electric resistance heating typically the most expensive. Your local prices can reorder that list — which is why every price in our calculator is editable.
How is heating cost actually calculated?+
Fuel price ÷ (energy content × system efficiency) gives cost per BTU of heat that reaches your rooms. For example: $3.50/gallon heating oil ÷ (138,500 BTU × 85% furnace efficiency) ≈ $29.70 per million BTU. Multiply by your home's seasonal heating load to get a winter estimate.
Is a heat pump really cheaper than a gas furnace?+
It's close, and it depends on your rates. A heat pump with a season-average COP of 3 at 16.9¢/kWh delivers heat at about $16.50/MMBTU; a 90% gas furnace at $1.60/therm delivers it at about $17.80/MMBTU. Cheap electricity or an efficient cold-climate unit favors the heat pump; cheap gas favors the furnace.
How many BTU does my house need for a season?+
A rough rule: 15,000 BTU per sq ft per season in mild climates up to 60,000 in very cold ones. A 2,000 sq ft home in a cold climate needs about 90 million BTU per winter — but insulation, air sealing and thermostat habits can move that by half in either direction.